What's wrong with Jon Papelbon?

You might be apt to say, "Nothing! Dude's 6/6 in saves." And you'd be right. Of course, unless you were wrong.



Saves being overrated aside (seriously, they are stupid), I see a number of things to be concerned with regarding the Red Sox closer. Ten innings is a small sample (at this point 1/6 or 1/7 of his season), but so far, things do not bode well.

Let's look at the worst thing a closer or any pitcher can do: walk a batter. Paps has six base on balls already this season. He had eight all of last season and 15 & 13 since he's been the full-time closer. Most new-fangled projections had him pegged walking between 12 and 16, right in line with his history. But he's, and here's that magic phrase, on pace to walk something like 36-42 batters this season. Of course it won't be that high but that's awful.

K-rod faced a similar problem last year and broke the saves record, so who cares?

Well, Papelbon has also been unbelievably lucky so far this season. His strand rate is a staggering 95.6%. With a number like that, he could post a 0.50 ERA with 90 saves -- kind of like Dice-K last season [zing!]. So clearly that will come to Earth, somewhere in the 70s. This will lead to a higher ERA (his fielding independent ERA is a shitty 4.53) and thus, more blown saves.

But where can we find some answers? Pitch selection could be one. While the fastball seems fine (averaging 95, being thrown 79% of the time), it's the other pitches that are worrisome.

He seems to have fallen in love with the slider, throwing it almost 11% of the time, with a velocity down slightly to 84 mph. Also, arguably his best pitch, the split finger, is down from a career 15% to a career low 10%. Not dropping the splitter in as often has lead to a fly ball rate hovering around 61%, way up from his career 48%. And, as well all know, fly balls lead to homers. Which are bad.

My final conclusion, and one that has been whispered at other places, is that Papelbon is injured. Unless there is some odd change in philosophy (i.e., let's pitch worse), why else would he be throwing much less splitters?

I think a DL stint is in Papelbon's future. Luckily, it looks like the Red Sox will be fine if such a thing happens.

But try not to be blinded by the fist-pumps and 97 mph heaters. Something is wrong with Papelbon.

A Few Things

Just a few things on I must bring up...

- I cannot wait for the MLB season to start, but I really can't wait for fantasy baseball to start. Basement League members owe a certain 2008 champ $5 each oww oww (I kid, don't worry about it). I really want to write a fantasy draft preview, but I don't want to reveal any players I covet. Is A-Rod still a first rounder???

- This Brian Cashman note cracked me up.

- The Mad Dog has been the only listenable person in sports media when it comes to this A-Rod business. I always considered the Mad Dog name to be a bit stupid, but his energy level is always full blast and he truly may be insane. His train of thought today was hilarious, he went from A-Rod, ragging on his wife, his cat "Yum-yum", and back to A-rod in two seconds, shouting the whole way through. True hero.

- Tim Fite is the fucking man.

- Don't read Batman R.I.P.

Roidin'

As the resident Yankee fan, I feel obligated to comment on a certain A-Rod. First off, I hate him. Secondly, I'm not surprised. I thought I would be plagued by Joe Torre book questions during every game telecast, now I get to hear about steroids at least 162 times. A-Roid did the right thing by admitting his mistake, now MLB must admit theirs.

Releasing the remaining 103 names of those who tested positive in 2003 testing will remove any doubts. While it may hurt the MLB in the short term (Big Papi and Albert are going down) it will allow us to officially clothes the chapter on the Juice Era. I would cry if Derek Jeter or Mariano tested positive, but I think they have a little more character than a certain choke artist.

As for the Yankees, how do they overcome this? Two words, sign Manny. It would remove a decent amount of attention from A-Hole, hurt the Red Sox, and you know he would love the NY spotlight. I've convinced myself that this is the right thing to do, and you know you want to see it. Do it Hank, do it.


side note: If I'm A-Fraud, there is no way I'm wasting my time banging an old hag like Madonna. What a moron.

Jason Varitek is an idiot

Jason Varitek has been riding his reputation for about two seasons now. He's regarded as a once great offensive catcher who "knows how to handle the Sox pitching staff" and is "a great clubhouse guy." But how much is that worth, really?

Remember how good I used to be? Pay me like that. Now.

It appears Varitek is on the verge of refusing a ridiculously generous offer of $5 mil/one season plus a club option, opting to "retire or sit out '09."

Red Sox fan or not, this is a prime example of the insanity that is baseball signing. Forget the Sabathia's and Teixeira's signing huge deals - hell, they earn it. It's deals like this that really harm baseball.

Here are two players 2008 seasons. Can ya guess which one is Varitek?

.220/13/43/.313 OBP/.359 SLG/73 OPS+ and 28.5% runners caught
.237/6/30/.340 OBP/.359 SLG/87 OPS+ and 35% runners caught

Player A is Varitek, while player B is Gregg Zaun - who just signed with the Orioles for...$1.5 million in 2009 with an option for 2010.

Zaun is straight up better than Varitek at this point in their careers. Zaun is one year older, but costs one fifth as much and has better numbers across the board. And this is not a one season anamoly. Zaun has outperformed Varitek for the past three seasons.

Now, many will say "Well Zaun doesn't know the pitchers!"and they'd be right. But honestly, how much does that affect pitchers effectiveness? One percent? Ten? It's a farce.

I'm all for loyalty to a great player whose only known Boston. But there comes a time when economics outweigh loyalty. If he doesn't want to play for fives times more than his market worth, let him go.

Gimme Zaun and $4 mil. over Varitek any day.