What's wrong with Jon Papelbon?

You might be apt to say, "Nothing! Dude's 6/6 in saves." And you'd be right. Of course, unless you were wrong.



Saves being overrated aside (seriously, they are stupid), I see a number of things to be concerned with regarding the Red Sox closer. Ten innings is a small sample (at this point 1/6 or 1/7 of his season), but so far, things do not bode well.

Let's look at the worst thing a closer or any pitcher can do: walk a batter. Paps has six base on balls already this season. He had eight all of last season and 15 & 13 since he's been the full-time closer. Most new-fangled projections had him pegged walking between 12 and 16, right in line with his history. But he's, and here's that magic phrase, on pace to walk something like 36-42 batters this season. Of course it won't be that high but that's awful.

K-rod faced a similar problem last year and broke the saves record, so who cares?

Well, Papelbon has also been unbelievably lucky so far this season. His strand rate is a staggering 95.6%. With a number like that, he could post a 0.50 ERA with 90 saves -- kind of like Dice-K last season [zing!]. So clearly that will come to Earth, somewhere in the 70s. This will lead to a higher ERA (his fielding independent ERA is a shitty 4.53) and thus, more blown saves.

But where can we find some answers? Pitch selection could be one. While the fastball seems fine (averaging 95, being thrown 79% of the time), it's the other pitches that are worrisome.

He seems to have fallen in love with the slider, throwing it almost 11% of the time, with a velocity down slightly to 84 mph. Also, arguably his best pitch, the split finger, is down from a career 15% to a career low 10%. Not dropping the splitter in as often has lead to a fly ball rate hovering around 61%, way up from his career 48%. And, as well all know, fly balls lead to homers. Which are bad.

My final conclusion, and one that has been whispered at other places, is that Papelbon is injured. Unless there is some odd change in philosophy (i.e., let's pitch worse), why else would he be throwing much less splitters?

I think a DL stint is in Papelbon's future. Luckily, it looks like the Red Sox will be fine if such a thing happens.

But try not to be blinded by the fist-pumps and 97 mph heaters. Something is wrong with Papelbon.