Boston Red Sox
- Despite a slow start, I am not concerned at all.
Sadly I agree. This is the first season I remember where the first two weeks meant so much. Of course the media is stupid and it is a long season. See you in the playoffs.
- That said, I don't think the offense will be where we thought it would be.
Is the order deep? Absolutely, they have two possible MVP candidates and go five or six deep with very solid hitters, as they proved last night coming back from down seven. But I don't think they are as imposing as the Yankees or as multi-faceted as the Rays.
The big thing is that they don't have a guy who is constantly on anymore. That being said, every one of those guys is dangerous and I would not underestimate them. I can't believe more people didn't go crazy for Manny.
- Jacoby Ellsbury may or may not be a terrible hitter.
Jacoby is the perfect #9 guy. The only problem is it would hurt them to move somebody like Pedroia to leadoff. I really don't think he is a good hitter.
- The bullpen looks disgusting.
Advantage Red Sox. I am not looking forward to Daniel Bard in the majors.
- David Ortiz is done.
In fact, him batting third may be one of the big reasons they have struggled to put runs on the board. Those three Ks and five left on last night do not bode well. Worse, he has 11 K and only 6 BB this season. If he hits anymore than .270 with 25 homers and 90 RBI, I would be shocked.
He looks lost and I am relieved. I would try to trade him ASAP if I were the Red Sox. I am surprised they haven't already.
- Lars Anderson will see time and help out in some significant way.
Youkilis is much more valuable at third, so when Lowell goes down he can shift there. Ortiz will still DH and calling up Anderson to play first seems like the logical answer. He's hitting .316/.436/.526 with five homers, 30 RBI, 13 doubles and a 29 BB:43 K in 133 ABs in AA this season.
It's easy to get swept up with the prospect of prospects, but this guy (at 20) seems like the real deal. And with Ortiz in decline and a number of other lineup concerns, he should see time. If the Sox stunk, I bet he would be up in a few short months. As it stands he probably won't see time until late in the season. But you never know.
I feel like the clock on Lowell is ticking pretty quickly. I'm sure Lars will be in to at least give Lowell a break.
- Matsuzaka will struggle with nagging injuries and ineffectiveness all season.
WBC has to be part of the reason. I think he will come back and be better than ever, if there isn't a secret arm injury. Besides, he always has the gyroball.
- Beckett and Lester have to -- and will -- pitch at a Cy Young level.
Although slightly overrated, Beckett is a fine number one starter. Last year was not great, but he'll flirt with 200 Ks, keep his walks under 50 and be in the mid-high threes with his ERA. But he has to top 200 innings this season, something he's only done twice ('06 and barely in '07).
These two can carry a staff, regardless of the revolving door at the 3-5 slots, and will be asked to this season.
I'm curious to see how Beckett does this season. Of course I hope he loses it, but I think he will be in contention for the Cy Young.
- The Red Sox will top 95 wins and win the AL East
Toronto and Baltimore will fade, there is only so much Halladay and Markakis can do. I do think the Yankees will be the AL East Champs this year. I feel like the starters of both teams cancel each other out, and the Yankees offense is a bit better (if A-Rod is good).
- But they will fall short of a World Series.
I'm liking the Yankees chemistry this year. Good vibes baby.
Lastly, I look forward to being wrong on all of these.
New York Yankees
• The House That Jeter Built
The New Yankee Stadium looks unbelievable. If I were a rookie, I would crap my pants as soon as I walked on the field. It is too early to call it but apparently it should have been named Coors’ Field 2. If the ball is hit to deep right there is a 90% chance that it will be a homer. They should make the advertisers on the right field wall pay triple. Obstructed-view seats (stupid) and super high prices are really the only true downsides. I can’t wait to go.
The new stadium does look truly immaculate. I love that they have all the history -- from the statues to the plaques, to all the other Yankee stuff -- crammed in there. It may have cost more than many, many countries' GNP, but it's how you do a new ballpark right.
• Where is Carl Pavano?
Not on the Yankees, thank you Jesus. I feel good about the rest of the Yankees rotation. C.C. Sabathia has overcome the apocalypse (1st game of the season) and with health should be solid every five days. A.J. Burnett has been the best starter so far, and will be a Cy Young candidate barring injury. Pettitte is reliable, and I like Joba as a starter (sue me). I was going to write how Yankee fans shouldn’t worry about Chien-Ming Wang, I was going to say that he was going to pull it together. Watching him pitch less than two innings again today makes me think otherwise. CMW needs to keep the ball down. CMW is a giant question mark. Phil Hughes will be in the rotation by the end of the year somehow.
I was thinking the same thing about Wang. "Oh he's fine. It's just...wait, he gave up eight more in less than two innings?" I'd be officially worried. But he is -- so far -- the number three starter. So things could be worse.
• The defense is going to stink, again.
Tex is really the only bright spot when it comes to defense. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner offer solid coverage in the outfield. Derek Jeter and Cano have very little range. If there is a close game I’m terrified.
Yeah, looking at the roster no one really sticks out as an above average defender besides Marky Mark. But with the team knocking on 900 runs and high K guys like CC and AJ, it shouldn't be a big problem.
• The Yankees will have a top 3 offense.
We are going to see bounce back years from Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Robinson Cano. Cano is going to be the number 5 guy come October, we are looking at a .300+ average and 20+ home runs. Tex will be Tex. I like that there is a little speed this year. Having a guy like Brett Gardner puts a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers, if he can get on base that is. I am not worried about offense this year.
According to the numbers, Cano should have hit .300 last season, but was super unlucky. He's a very good player. Although they are a little old, Jeter and Damon can still get the job done. Swisher and Tex are very good. Overall, they challenge the Sox for deepest lineup.
• A-Rod, man on fire.
A-Rod has a lot to prove. Will anybody be more motivated this year? I hate him, but if he doesn’t overdo it he will have a monster season.
Everything points to A-Rod clubbing 40 homers once he gets back and shutting everyone up. That, or he totally falls apart. But I think the 40 homer scenario is more likely.
• Nick Swisher will cool down.
But he will still be awesome! I too have fallen in love with Nick Swisher. I like that he has a party attitude, I love that he is a patient hitter, and I love that he struck out Gabe Kapler (retire now Gabe). There is no way that he stays above .300, but 30 home runs isn’t out of the question. “Swish’s Wishes” is the best charity name ever. I ponder purchasing a Swisher shirt.
He is this team's Kevin Millar. He may not be great, but he keeps everybody loose and gets on base when he needs to. But seriously, Kapler needs to quit right now. It was swinging!
• The bullpen will be better.
Bullpens are constantly evolving. No team has the same bullpen in September that is does in April. Brian Bruney IS our setup man. He finally has the control to match his power. Mariano isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, he is the best ever. If the starters can get to the 8th things will be fine. I am worried about the long relievers. It isn’t going to be the best, but the Yankees bullpen won’t be terrible once some of the minor leaguers move up.
How Rivera remains this good blows my mind. The bullpen lives and dies with him. So far, so good.
• There will be trades.
Matt Holliday is going to be the Yankees left fielder in the summer.
No doubt. And Oakland will need to keep the diapers stocked for all the kids they will have on their roster. Him hitting with that 190' right field fence is scary.
• World Series Champs 2009
A deep offensive team, a strong rotation, and Mariano Rivera. This is the most balanced Yankee team in a long time. We are going to see a Yankees/Red Sox ALCS and it will be a full seven game ride. Am I that far off?
Totally plausible. As it is most years. Tampa seems due for a comedown and all will be right in the universe.
• Health…
Everything I’ve said depends on the health of the players. It is baseball after all.
I think we can both agree on that.
I should note that I am terrified of the Red Sox getting Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Albert Pujols.
Dear God please get Cabrera over here.
